Strategic Plan to Address Growth in Southern Nevada

4. Research and Analysis Process

Population Forecast

One of the first tasks of the Authority was to estimate the future population of Southern Nevada. All future needs assessments, revenue studies, and a strategic plan to identify methods of closing potential gaps between needs and revenues would become based on this population forecast. The Authority established a Population Projection Subcommittee Team to examine Southern Nevada population forecasts and the economic and growth assumptions contained within these forecasts. After examining a variety of forecasts, a year 2002 population range of approximately 2.3 -2.8 million Southern Nevada residents was adopted. This range consists of projections from the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (CBER) and the Nevada State Demographer.

The Authority adopted a future population range as a basis for its studies and plans. This range includes the CBER conservative projection on the low side and the State Demographer middle projection on the high side. Each of these projections includes numerous assumptions regarding the status and influence of both national and local economies. In summary, the State Demographer middle projection anticipates job creation at about current rates. The CBER conservative projection anticipates that the inertial forces of growth will cause growth to continue at about current rates for the next five to ten years to be followed by a period of continued but slower growth.

Population forecasts adopted by the Authority include the following:

 

While findings of needs and this Strategic Plan to meet the needs, revolves around the adopted population range, it must be recognized that no population forecast for a dynamic area will be completely accurate. External and internal economic threats and opportunities along with global economic conditions can substantially alter the assumptions built into the forecast. In fact, historic population forecasts for Southern Nevada have not anticipated the amount of growth that has occurred. This is understandable given the unprecedented rate and duration of the economic boom. A key point for future consideration is to monitor factors that contribute to population growth. Population forecasts need to be periodically reassessed accordingly. Concurrent recalculation of needs assessments and adjustment of strategies to meet the needs should be undertaken.

Committee Structure

The work of the Authority has been accomplished through the committee structure. Research and analysis was performed at the committee level with reports, findings and recommendations brought to the full authority for review, comment and acceptance. While the working committees were in progress, the full Authority meetings were also used for presentations by experts in the twelve focus issues identified by the Authority. Panels of experts were invited by the Authority to address the issues of regional planning and governance, water and wastewater, infrastructure financing, the legislative process, flood control, housing, economic development, health care and the human side of growth, and public safety. These panel discussions were significant, and historic. Southern Nevada jurisdictions, agencies, private industry, and citizen representatives had never before been brought together to comprehensively address these important quality of life issues. Much of the information presented during these panel discussions was used as a basis for each committee’s findings and conclusions. Executive Summaries of each committee’s reports are included as appendices to the Strategic Plan. Full committee reports are available for review at local government offices.

The committee structure also brought in the professional staffs of Southern Nevada government entities for support the scope of work of the Authority’s committees is summarized as follows:

 

Master Plan & Capital Improvement Plan Review Committee

The Master Plan & Capital Improvement Plan Review Committee was charged with assessing whether existing plans are sufficient to meet the needs and address the expected amount of growth in Clark County over the next 20 years. The task was large given the complexity, diversity and sheer volume of current plans. In order to make similar comparisons, the committee developed a series of standard questions and a Nevada Revised Statute compliance assessment for each of the agencies to complete.

The committee invited and heard oral presentations from all of the agencies. The agencies were assigned the responsibility of assessing their plans and responding to questions. The Committee then evaluated the responses. The committee concluded by completing a report, ensuring that the report was adopted by the full Authority, and forwarded the report to the Legislative
Counsel Bureau prior to the June 1, 1998 mandated deadline. The report also served to begin cataloging recommendations to pass on to subsequent committees. The Executive Summary of the report is included in Appendix 2.

Needs Assessment Committee

The Needs Assessment Committee was tasked with identifying 20-year infrastructure needs for Southern Nevada. For each infrastructure topic, experts from the appropriate service provision agency were brought in to work with the Committee. The committee then proceeded to identify the following:

• Develop a common infrastructure definition to establish a comparable base across jurisdictions.
• Determine the current level of service or extent of facilities in place (where we are).
• Establish a desirable level of service standard (where we want to be).
• Apply the Authority adopted population to the desired standard to determine 10 and 20 year facility needs.
• Determine the gap between current service levels and the 10 and 20 year desired levels.
• Forward needs finding to the Finance Subcommittee and Infrastructure Financing Committee.

The final report of the Needs Assessment Committee was accepted by the full Authority prior to the October 1, 1998 Senate Bill No. 383 mandate. The Executive Summary of the report is included in Appendix 3.

Infrastructure Financing Committee

The Infrastructure Financing Committee was established to assess the financial capacity of Southern Nevada to meet the projected infrastructure needs. This was accomplished by the following:

• Developed a financial analysis computer model to identify all infrastructure revenue sources.
• Conducted a financial analysis of Capital Improvement Plans and Needs Assessment Committee findings for seven infrastructure topics.
• Conducted a fund matching and optimization analysis to identify gaps between projected needs and revenue sources.
• Identified financial methods of closing revenue gaps that were found.

The Infrastructure Financing Committee recommendations were accepted by the full authority on October 5,1998. The Executive Summary of the report is included in Appendix 4.

Strategic Plan Committee

The charge of the Strategic Plan Committee was to coordinate the findings of the Authority, prior committees, and analysis undertaken as part of the strategic plan process into a “Strategic Plan to Address Growth in Southern Nevada”. In order to achieve continuity with prior committee work, at least one member of the Plan Review, Needs Assessment and Infrastructure Financing Committee was part of the Strategic Plan Committee.

The elements which comprise the Authority’s Strategic Plan were derived from a variety of sources:

• Presentations by technical experts at full Authority meetings
• Discussion by Authority members at full Authority meetings
• Plan Review results
• Needs Assessment results
• Infrastructure Finance results
• Analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (“SWOT”)
• Public Input

The “SWOT” analysis was sponsored by the Strategic Plan Committee, and was conducted in two facilitated sessions. All Authority members, technical experts and the public were invited to attend. Authority members participated in identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for each issue required to be addressed in the strategic plan. At those same sessions, Authority members were asked to reach consensus on the vision and principles contained in the plan. The vision and principles were then approved at a regular Authority meeting. The SWOT analysis results formed the basis of the goals for each issue. The goals were adopted by the full authority in August 1998. The SWOT results and deliverable committee reports were culled for critical statements and ideas which could be used to develop objectives and strategies for each required subject.

The Strategic Plan Committee held public meetings nearly every week from August through November 1998 to complete the plan within established time frames. Objectives and strategies for all key focus issues were reviewed at each meeting, and then brought forward to the full Authority for approval.

The plan draft was approved in two phases by the Authority at their meetings of October 19 and November 5, 1998.

The Public Comment period began officially on November 10, and ended on December 11. Copies of the draft plan were made available at more than 40 public locations, including local government offices, public libraries, and community centers. The Public comment supplement to this report provides further details of the public outreach efforts conducted during the official public comment period. An executive summary of the comments received during the comment period are attached as Appendix 6, and the full text of the written comments is incorporated into a supplemental document.

Legislative Recommendations Committee

The Legislative Recommendations Committee began meeting in November, 1998. The Legislative Recommendations Committee’s report is included as Appendix 5.